Monday, September 30, 2013

The beginning of an 'Eisenhower Rally'?

U.S. stocks are trading virtually in lockstep with 1954, the best year for American equity and the time when shares finally recovered all their losses from the Great Depression.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index's returns in 2013 are tracking day-to-day price moves in 1954 almost identically, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group and Bloomberg. In no other year are the trading patterns more similar to 2013 since data on the index began 86 years ago. The correlation coefficient between this year and 1954, when the benchmark gauge rose 45%, is 0.95 out of a maximum of 1.

American equities this year climbed above the 2007 peak before the global financial crisis, like they did in 1954 when the S&P 500 reached a new high for the first time since 1929. While bearish investors say the correlation is irrelevant, bulls say the index will keep rising the way it did 59 years ago, as investors regain faith in U.S. profits.

“The return of confidence theme is analogous to what was experienced in the '50s,” Jim Russell, a senior equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which manages about $112 billion, said in a Sept. 24 phone interview. “We'll never get an all-clear signal, but we got the good enough signal. People feel the crisis environment is behind us.”

The S&P 500 fell 1.1% last week to 1,691.75, the biggest drop since August, on concern that a political showdown over government spending will hurt economic growth. The index is up 19 percent in 2013 and advanced 150 percent since the start of the bull market in March 2009.

The U.S. government is moving toward a partial shutdown for the first time in 17 years tomorrow as Congress deadlocked over Republicans' insistence on delaying the 2010 health-care law. Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois, the chamber's second-ranking Democrat, predicted the government will close after the House voted 231-192 to stop many of the Affordable Care Act's central provisions for one year and tie that to an extension of government funding through Dec. 15.

The rally is following a similar path to the one 59 years ago. In 2013, the S&P 500 climbed from January to May, fell 1.5% in June and rose 5% in July. In 1954, the index posted gains for the first five months, lost momentum in June with an increase of less than 0.1% and gained steam in July by advancing 5.7%. Both years had losses in August.Record Highs

The gauge surpassed its record of 1,565.15 on March 28 and has climbed 7.8% since then. Kroger Co. and Honeywell International Inc. rose above their all-time highs this year, and almost 200 S&P 500 companies in September exceeded their peaks from the last 52 weeks, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

In September 1954, the S&P 500 exceeded the 1929 record and rallied 12% more through the end of the year.

“We're nicely above the old high, and we're just getting to a point where the economy is getting back online,” John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York, said in a Sept. 24 phone interview. “There's another leg to come in this bull market.”

The market gained in 1954 as the economy recovered from a recession and earnings expanded during the Cold War. While gross domestic product shrank 1.9 percent in the first three months of the year, it grew an average of 5.6 percent the next seven quarters. The S&P 500 valuation rose to 13 times earnings in 1954 from 9.9 at the end of the previous year, S&P data show.

GDP has expanded at a slower pace during this bull market, climbing an average of 2.2 percent each quarter since the recession ended in 2009. The index's price-earnings ratio increased to 16.2 from 14.1 in January and profits have almost doubled in the past four years.

“Stocks are clearly less attractive than they were a year ago, but they're still attractive relative to many other asset classes,” Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management, which oversees $180 billion, said Sept. 26.

The S&P 500's 5.3% advance this quarter compares with a total return of less than 0.1% for Treasuries, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show. The yield on the 10- year note reached 3.01% on Sept. 6, the highest since July 2011. The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against 10 major peers, fell 2.7%, the biggest drop in more than two years. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commoditi! es gained 5.4%.Slowing Growth

The bull market that began in March 2009 has already extended beyond the four-year average length of rallies since World War II, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates Inc. U.S. economic and earnings growth are slowing, a sign that equities may lose momentum, according to Bruce McCain, who helps oversee more than $20 billion as chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland.

“I don't think we'll see fast enough growth like what we saw in the 1950s that would really offer the opportunity for a surging stock market,” he said in a Sept. 25 interview. “If you look at the valuations, we're not at extremely low levels.”

The S&P 500 rallied 55 percent in the two years after it set the Sept. 22, 1954, record. While it dropped 22% from August 1956 through October 1957, the gauge then almost doubled through 1961.

Economists cut growth forecasts this month to 2% for the third quarter from an earlier estimate of 2.3%. GDP hasn't expanded faster than 3% since the beginning of 2012. The Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing its $85 billion bond-buying program this month, saying it wants more evidence of an economic recovery.

10 Best Heal Care Stocks To Invest In 2014

U.S. profits have increased an average of 4.2% per quarter since the start of last year, compared with the 28% average in 2010 and 2011. Companies will increase earnings 5.2% for the full year and 3.2 percent excluding financial firms and banks, according to

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Hot Tech Companies To Own For 2014

There are investment opportunities in every sector, but biotechs launching new drugs offer a unique investment opportunity to take advantage of hyper-growth as sales increase dramatically. Quarter-over-quarter growth of 50% to 100% isn't unheard of at the beginning of drug launches.

Here are a few investment opportunities from companies that have recently launched drugs.

An orphan investment opportunity
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AEGR  ) sold just $1.2 million worth of Juxtapid, its treatment for a rare genetic disease called homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, or HoFH, which causes extremely high cholesterol levels.

While that's a pretty small number, it's only the first quarter the drug has been on the market. For the remaining three quarters of the year, Aegerion is looking for sales between $14 million and $24 million. And that only includes U.S. sales. The drug, which will be called Lojuxta in Europe, should be launched next year based on a stamp of approval from the�European Committee�for Medicinal Products for Human Use�last month.

Hot Tech Companies To Own For 2014: LRAD Corporation(LRAD)

LRAD Corporation engages in the design, development, and commercialization of directed sound technologies and products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The company develops and delivers directed acoustic products that beam, focus, and control sound over short and long distances. It offers Long Range Acoustic Device, which creates directed acoustic beam to communicate at operational ranges in high ambient noise environments, primarily for military applications. The company also provides SoundSaber thin film magnetic speaker technology that provides high clarity throughout the audio range for emergency and mass notification, public address, and other sound applications. Its SoundSaber hardened panels are used in acoustic environments, such as hangar bays, industrial buildings, airports, and other facilities. LRAD Corporation sells its products directly to government, military, large end-users, and defense-related companies. The company was formerly known as American Technology Corporation and changed its name to LRAD Corporation in March 2010. LRAD Corporation was founded in 1980 and is based in San Diego, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By gurujx]

    LRAD (LRAD): CFO/Secretary Katherine McDermott Sold 38,204 Shares

    CFO/Secretary Katherine McDermott sold 38,204 shares of LRAD stock on Aug. 28 at the average price of $1.57. Katherine H McDermott owns at least 17,800 shares after this. The price of the stock has decreased by 10.19% since.

Hot Tech Companies To Own For 2014: NORSAT INTL (NII.TO)

Norsat International Inc. provides broadband communication solutions that enable the transmission of data, audio, and video in remote and austere environments. Its Sinclair Technologies segment offers radio frequency (RF) antennas, including base station antennas, mobile/transit antennas, covert antennas, filters, receiver multicouplers, and accessories; and RF filter products, such as cavity filters, transmitter combiners, duplexers, isolators, circulators, and receiver multi-couplers. It serves public sector and military network operators, private sector networks, and original equipment manufacturers, as well as mobile radio, public safety, military, cellular, aviation, and heavy transport industries. The company�s Satellite Solutions segment provides a portfolio of portable satellite systems, including GLOBETrekkerTM, an intelligent portable satellite system that enables users to establish a reliable broadband connection on short notice; Norsat Rover, a satellite termi nal that fits into an extended-mission backpack; and OmniLink, a product family designed to address the needs of users seeking to establish broadband connectivity on a temporary basis. It serves defense, emergency services, and broadcasters. Norsat International Inc.�s Microwave Products segment designs, develops, and markets satellite receivers, transmitters, power amplifiers, and other customized products that enable the transmission, reception, and amplification of signals to and from satellites. Its customers include resellers, system integrators, antenna manufacturers, and service providers. Norsat International Inc. also provides engineering consulting services. The company has operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, Italy, and Germany. The company was formerly known as NII Norsat International, Inc. and changed its name to Norsat International Inc. in July 1999. Norsat International Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Ri chmond, Canada.

Best Bank Companies To Own For 2014: Exar Corporation(EXAR)

Exar Corporation, a fabless semiconductor company, engages in the design, sub-contract manufacture, and sale of silicon, software, and subsystem solutions for industrial, telecom, networking, and storage applications. Its product portfolio includes power management and interface components, communications products, storage optimization solutions, network security, and applied service processors. The company?s products has applications in portable electronic devices, set top boxes, digital video recorders, telecommunication systems, servers, enterprise storage systems, and industrial automation equipment. Exar Corporation sells its products to distributors and original equipment manufacturers or their contract manufacturers worldwide. It markets its products through independent sales representatives, distributors, direct sales organization, and catalog distributors. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

Hot Tech Companies To Own For 2014: Sanmina-SCI Corporation(SANM)

Sanmina-SCI Corporation provides integrated electronics manufacturing services worldwide. It offers product design and engineering services, including initial development, detailed design, prototyping, validation, preproduction, and manufacturing design; volume manufacturing of complete systems, components, and subassemblies; final system assembly and testing services; direct order fulfillment and logistics services; and after-market product service and support services. The company also manufactures various system components and subassemblies consisting of printed circuit boards, printed circuit board assemblies, backplanes and backplane assemblies, enclosures, cable assemblies, precision machine components, optical components and modules, and memory modules. It provides its services to original equipment manufacturers primarily in the communication, enterprise computing and storage, multimedia, industrial and semiconductor capital equipment, defense and aerospace, medica l, clean technology, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in San Jose, California.

Hot Tech Companies To Own For 2014: Fusion-io Inc (FIO)

Fusion-io Inc (Fusion) is a provider of datacenter solutions that accelerate databases, virtualization, cloud computing, big data, and the applications that help drive business from the smallest e-tailers to some of the largest data centers, social media leaders, and Fortune Global 500 businesses. The Company's integrated hardware and software platform enables the decentralization of data from legacy architectures and specialized hardware. The Company sells its solutions through a global direct sales force, original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, including Cisco, Dell, HP, and IBM, and other channel partners. In August 2011, the Company acquired IO Turbine, Inc.,. Effective March 18, 2013, the Company acquired ID7.

Fusion-io's ioMemory hardware is a sub-system connecting a large array of industry-standard NAND Flash memory through the Company's data-path controller and its virtual storage layer, or VSL, software to create a high capacity memory tier that natively attaches to a server's PCI-Express peripheral bus (PCIe).

The Company's portfolio of storage memory products incorporates the Company's ioMemory hardware combined with its virtual storage layer (VSL) and caching software into its family of ioDrive, ioFX, and ioCache enterprise grade products. The Company's ioDrive products work in conjunction with the Company's directCache data-tiering software, ioTurbine virtualization software, ioSphere management system, and ION Data Accelerator software. The Company's latest ioDrive, ioFX, and ioCache product families are a line of PCIe standard form-factor storage memory platforms that combine one or more ioMemory sub-systems with the Company's VSL software.

The Company's directCache software extends the Company's ioMemory based platforms and permits interoperability with traditional direct-attached, network-attached, storage area network attached, and appliance attached backend storage systems. The Company's ioTurbine virtualization software extends the Company! 's ioMemory platform and permits host-based data acceleration to specifically address the demand for high-density, high-performance server, and desktop virtualization.

ioSphere is a suite of management software purpose-built for the Company's storage memory infrastructure and designed around its application acceleration platform. ioSphere software is accessible through a graphical user interface that enables datacenter administrators to centrally configure, monitor, manage, and tune all distributed ioMemory devices throughout the datacenter. In addition, this software offers real-time, predictive, and historical reporting of ioMemory's performance and wear.

The Company's ION Data Accelerator software transforms server platforms into application acceleration appliances that share Fusion ioMemory across applications. ION Data Accelerator delivers Fusion-io performance on open server platforms with software-defined storage, or SDS, for applications such as Oracle RAC, Microsoft SQL Server, MySQL, and SAP HANA, along with other applications where shared storage aids deployment. The Company's original equipment manufacturer�� (OEMs), including Cisco, Dell, HP, and IBM, sell branded storage memory solutions based on the Company's standard products as well as custom form-factor versions to fit specific applications.

The Company competes with EMC Corporation, Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P, Texas Memory Systems, Oracle, Adaptec, Inc., LSI Corporation, Sandisk, Corp, IBM, CA, Inc, Nagios Enterprises, LLC., Hitachi Data, Huawei Technologies, Co., Intel Corp., LSI Corporation, Marvell Semiconductor, Inc., Micron Technology, Inc., OCZ Technology Group, Inc., Samsung Electronics, Inc., SanDisk, Corp., Seagate Technology, STEC, Inc., Toshiba Corp., and Western Digital Corp.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lee Jackson]

    Fusion-io Inc. (NYSE: FIO) was busy going nowhere until Virident was bought by disc drive giant Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC). Then all eyes on Wall Street started to focus on which company may be the next acquisition target. Many think the odds are good that Fusion-io is that candidate. The consensus price target is posted at $15. The high target on Wall Street is a staggering $29.

  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Facebook gets much of its flash memory from Fusion-io (NYSE: FIO  ) , where it accounts for more than a third of the memory maker's total revenues, and it was buying up a lot more of its flash in the fiscal fourth quarter than Fusion-io had anticipated. While the current quarter is going to see a bit of a drop-off in demand from Facebook, the flash-memory maker expects to be able to keep the strong relationship going in the future. Whether it will be the one making the "worst possible flash" remains to be seen.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) subsidiary Brooks Sports is drawing quite a bit of attention from Buffett devotees these days. The running-shoe maker has sprinted to 34% volume growth in both 2011 and 2012, with U.S. sales growth hitting the tape at 43% by the end of last year.

Our roving reporter Rex Moore caught up with Brooks CEO Jim Weber at the recent Berkshire shareholder meeting in Omaha. In this segment of a multipart series, Jim talks about the fierce competitive landscape for running-shoe makers.

Are Berkshire shares for you?
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Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: Fresenius Medical Care Corporation (FMS)

Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA, a dialysis company, provides products and services for patients with chronic kidney diseases. As of May 12, 2011, it provided dialysis care services to 216,942 patients through its network of 2,769 dialysis clinics primarily in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, and Africa. The company also develops and manufactures various dialysis products, including hemodialysis machines, dialyzers, hemofilters, dialysis fluid filters, tubing systems, fistula needles, dialysis related equipment, acute hemodialysis machines, plasma filters, acute tubing systems and cassettes, catheters, and related disposable products for chronic hemodialysis, acute therapy, home therapy, and therapeutic apheresis, as well as dialysis drugs. In addition, it provides laboratory services. Fresenius Medical sells its products through distributors. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Bad Homburg, Germany.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Charles Carlson, CEO and Portfolio Manager, Horizon Investment Services]

    For investors looking for growth but also income, I especially like three health-care related stocks��resenius Medical (FMS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and Smith & Nephew (SNN).

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: American Software Inc (AMSWA)

American Software, Inc. (American Software), incorporated in 1970, develops, markets and supports a portfolio of software and services that delivers enterprise management and collaborative supply chain solutions to the global marketplace. American Software operates three business segments: Supply Chain Management (SCM), Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Information Technology (IT) Consulting. The SCM segment consists of Logility, Inc. (Logility), which provides collaborative supply chain solutions for forecasting, production, distribution and management of products between trading partners. The ERP segment consists of American Software ERP, which provides purchasing and materials management, customer order processing, financial, e-commerce, flow manufacturing and manufacturing solutions, and New Generation Computing (NGC), which provides business software to both retailers and manufacturers in the apparel, sewn products and furniture industries. The IT Consulting segment consists of The Proven Method, Inc., an IT staffing and consulting services firm. The Company also provides support for its software products, such as software enhancements, documentation, updates, customer education, consulting, systems integration services, and maintenance.

Supply Chain Management

The Company�� wholly owned subsidiary Logility provides SCM solutions, an integrated set of supply chain planning, inventory optimization, manufacturing, and transportation and logistics solutions. Logility provides SCM solutions to streamline and optimize the market planning, management, production, and distribution of products for manufacturers, suppliers, distributors, and retailers. As of April 30, 2011, Logility�� customer base is approximately 1,250 companies located in more than 74 countries. Logility markets and sells the Demand Solutions product line to the global small and midsize enterprise (SME) market through the global VAR distribution network of Demand Management, Inc. (DMI). Logility also ! offers the Logility Voyager Solutions suite.

Logility Voyager Solutions is an integrated software suite that provides SCM, including collaborative planning, strategic network design, multi-echelon inventory optimization, optimized supply sourcing, production management, warehouse management, and collaborative logistics capabilities. Logility Voyager Solutions incorporates performance management analytics for decision support for processes, such as demand management, inventory and supply optimization, manufacturing planning and scheduling, transportation planning and management and sales and operations planning (S&OP).

The Logility Voyager Solutions software suite is modular and scalable to meet the management requirements of global organizations involving products with manufacturing or distribution networks. In addition, the Logility Voyager Solutions suite interfaces with a range of existing enterprise applications deployed on a range of technical platforms. Logility Voyager Solutions accelerates S&OP, as well as strategic partner collaboration. Voyager Sales and Operations Planning enables companies to streamline and accelerate the entire S&OP process. Voyager Collaborate enables companies to communicate across their organizations and share supply chain information with external trading partners.

Voyager Fashion Forecasting helps improve profits with capabilities that address the collection launches for fashion-driven businesses. Voyager Demand Planning helps reconcile differences between business planning and detailed product forecasting. Voyager Life Cycle Planning provides control to model each phase in a product�� sunrise-to-sunset lifecycle, including introduction, maturity, replacement, substitution and retirement. Voyager Event Planning integrates marketing strategies with forecasting, distribution and logistics planning to calculate the impact of promotional plans and demand shaping strategies, such as price discounts, coupons, advertising, special pack! aging and! product placement.

Logility Voyager Solutions enables enterprises to set inventory targets at each node of a multi-echelon distribution network to match strategic inventory goals and service levels. Voyager Inventory Optimization optimizes inventory investments across multi-echelon manufacturing and distribution networks to meet business and service level objectives for supply chains with multiple stages of inventory. Logility Voyager Inventory Planning allows enterprises to measure the tradeoff of inventory investment and desired customer service levels.

Logility Voyager Solutions optimizes material, inventory, production and distribution assets by synchronizing supply and demand. Voyager Supply Planning optimizes sourcing and production decisions to balance supply, manufacturing and distribution constraints based on corporate goals. Voyager Replenishment Planning provides visibility of future customer demand, corresponding product and material requirements, and the actions needed to satisfy those demands. Voyager Manufacturing Planning creates optimized constraint-based manufacturing schedules and compares multiple schedule scenarios to determine the optimal trade-off between manufacturing efficiencies, inventory investments and greenhouse gas emissions.

Logility Voyager Solutions provides capabilities for optimizing both warehouse and transportation operations. Voyager WarehousePRO provides shipping and inventory accuracy by optimizing the flow of materials and information through distribution centers. Voyager Transportation Planning and Management provide a multi-modal solution for savings of time, effort and money. It enables automated shipment planning, shipment execution and freight accounting. Demand Solution�� supply chain software provides a transition from spreadsheet management to robust reporting and tracking. Demand Solutions offers two separate product suites: traditional and DSX. The Demand Solutions application suite predict future demand and m! ake infor! med decisions to optimize inventory turns, customer service levels and profitability. Demand Solutions Forecast Management provides a demand planning solution that fits virtually any industry and deploys. Demand Solutions Requirements Planning incorporates collaborative planning capabilities to streamline supply activities from the production line through delivery.

Demand Solutions Collaboration offers a certified collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) compliant collaborative planning solution that streamlines communications between a company and its customers and suppliers. Demand Solutions Sales & Operations Planning automates and continually analyzes the annual business planning process. Demand Solutions Advanced Planning and Scheduling is a production scheduling solution that supports both the process and discrete enterprise environment and produces accurate schedules taking into account machines, personnel, tooling and inventory constraints. Demand Solutions View (DS View) extends the value of Demand Solutions, empowering users to aggregate, rotate, filter, sort and otherwise manipulate large volumes of data into meaningful information. Demand Solutions Retail Planning enables manufacturers, distributors and retailers to collaboratively produce, ship and replenish product based on point-of-sale (POS) data.

Enterprise Resource Planning

The Company�� enterprise solutions are global solutions that link critical functions throughout an enterprise. The e-Intelliprise solution is a Web-based ERP system that a customer can run over the Internet, Intranet or Extranet utilizing the IBM iSeries servers. This allows functions within the ERP system to be deployed over the Internet using a Webpage capability. The e-Intelliprise solution is a global system, capable of operating in multiple languages and logistical organizations. Its e-applications are solutions for conducting business on the Internet that can Web-enable specific business functions t! hrough in! tegration with existing ERP or legacy systems. The e-applications are available for the applications, which include e-procurement, e-store, e-expenses, e-forms, e-payables, e-receivables, Purchase Order Tracking and Vendor Collaboration, Requisition Tracking, Shipment Tracking, e-process management and e-connect a seamless, XML-enabled data exchange.

The Company�� product line consists of software and services that operate on three strategic computer platforms, which includes IBM System z Mainframe or compatible, IBM System i (AS/400), and Intel-based servers and clients that operate Windows 2000, 2003, XP and Vista. It has written its products in various standard programming languages used for business application software, including ANSI COBOL, Micro Focus COBOL, C, C++, Visual Basic, JAVA, JAVA2 and other programming languages. Many have both on-line and batch capabilities.

IT Consulting

The Proven Method, Inc., the Company�� wholly owned subsidiary, is a technology services firm that specializes in assisting customer base to solve business issues with technology solutions. The solutions the Company provides ranges from Web applications to complex Business Intelligence applications and solutions. Business Intelligence consists of the development and implementation of a reporting process for dealing with data and multiple business entities/components. Its customers are Internet savvy and knowledgeable in wireless solutions, social networking and channeling implementations, server and desktop virtualization, and deployment of interactive applications. The Proven Method has customers, such as Aon, IBM, UPS, Norfolk Southern, Xerox, SunTrust Bank, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Kubota Manufacturing of North America, The Home Depot, AT&T, State of Georgia, CompuCom, Zep Inc, Chick-fil-A, Global Payments, Verizon, Catlin Group Ltd, Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta, Fulton Paper, Aaron Rents, AutoTrader.com, Nalco Chemical, Georgia Tech Research Institute and numerous ot! her custo! mers throughout the United States.

The Company competes with SAP, Oracle, Infor, JDA Software and Red Prairie.

Top High Tech Stocks To Own Right Now: Pharmagap Inc.(GAP.V)

PharmaGap Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the development of therapeutic drugs for treatment of cancer and other human disease conditions associated with Protein Kinase C (PKC). Its lead drug compound GAP-107B8, which is in the pre-clinical testing stage for the treatment of cancer. Pharmagap Inc. has a collaboration agreement with Queen's University to develop GAP-107B8 for bladder cancer. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: Auric Pacific Group Limited(A23.SI)

Auric Pacific Group Limited, an investment holding company, primarily engages in the distribution of fast moving consumer food and non-food products. It distributes commercial and fine wines, spirits, cosmetics, and health supplements. The company also involves in the manufacturing of food products, including bread and bakery products, butter and cheese, dairy spread and margarine, buns, and cream rolls, as well as frozen food products, such as frozen pizzas, garlic bread, pies, and pastries under the Sunshine, Top-One, SSC, and Buttercup brands. In addition, it involves in the management and operation of a chain of food courts under Food Junction, Food Culture, FJ Square, The Food Place, and Food Garden brand names, as well as operates cafe-bakeries, bakery corners, restaurants, and food courts and outlets. Further, the company engages in the providing catering and central kitchen production services; leasing residential and commercial properties; and investing in funds a nd quoted investment securities. It operates in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, and the People's Republic of China. Auric Pacific Group Limited was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: Challenger Financial Services Group(CGF.AX)

Challenger Financial Services Group Limited operates as an investment management firm in Australia. The company operates as an issuer of annuities and a provider of listed and unlisted investment products and services to institutional and retail clients. It also provides various investment choices across a range of asset classes and investment styles, as well as operates as an investment manager. The company was founded in 1985 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: Hera SpA (HRA.MI)

Hera SpA is an Italy-based company engaged in the energy, environmental and water sectors. It operates through five segments: Gas, Electricity, Integrated Water Cycle, Waste Management, and Other Services. The Gas segment includes methane gas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) distribution and sales services, district heating, as well as heat management. The Electricity segment encompasses electricity production, distribution and sales services. The Integrated Water Cycle segment includes mains water, purification and sewerage services. The Waste Management segment consists of waste collection, treatment and disposal services. The Other Services segment focuses on public lighting, telecommunications and other minor services. On January 1, 2013, the merger by incorporation of Acegas Aps Holding Srl into HERA SpA became effective. In March 2013, it acquired the entire share capital of state-owned Acegas-Aps Holding SpA.

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: Tower Ltd (TWR.AX)

TOWER Limited provides life and general insurance products primarily in New Zealand. The company�s insurance products include boat, business, car, caravan, contents, corporate-commercial, disability, farm-lifestyle, funeral, house, income protection, jet ski, life, motorcycle, trauma, travel, truck, yacht, and fire insurance. It also offers savings and investment management services, including individually managed account services, retail and institutional fund management services, workplace superannuation schemes, and financial advisory services. In addition, the company provides general insurance services in the Pacific Islands. TOWER Limited was founded in 1869 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.

Top High Tech Stocks For 2014: Rush Enterprises Inc.(RUSHB)

Rush Enterprises, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retailer of commercial vehicles and related services in the United States. The company owns and operates a network of commercial vehicle dealerships under the Rush Truck Centers name. Its Rush Truck Centers primarily sell commercial vehicles manufactured by Peterbilt, International, Hino, UD, Ford, Isuzu, Mitsubishi Fuso, IC Bus, or Blue Bird; and provide new and used commercial vehicles, aftermarket parts, service and repair, financing, leasing, and rental services, as well as property and casualty insurance to its commercial vehicle customers and other truck owners. The company serves owner operators, regional and national truck fleets, corporations, and local governments. It operates a network of 70 centers located in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. The company was founded in 1965 and is he adquartered in New Braunfels, Texas.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Petmed Express (PETS) Upcoming Earnings News Obscures a More Important Reality

The two-year soft patch for Petmed Express Inc. (NASDAQ:PETS) may well be over; we'll know for sure on Monday. The two-year dry spell for faithful PETS shareholders may also be over. In fact, the chart says the stock's already in a new uptrend, and the company has a chance to cement that budding move into place when earnings are unveiled early next week.

First things first - the chart. Though PETS has been in a broad uptrend since late 2011, it's been an erratic and unreliable uptrend. The falling resistance line that kept that pullback going for so long was snapped in early 2013. And, thanks to some serious buying interest that's materialized in the past two weeks, Petmed Express shares have finally broken above a key resistance zone between $11.50 and $13.00.

That in itself is a great bullish clue, and were earnings not on the agenda for Monday (the 22nd), that may be enough to step in. Earnings are often a stock-moving catalyst though, and it's mot likely PETM is going to be an exception to that rule of thumb. The good news is, the company is very, very likely to post good news.

To call a spade a spade, Petmed Express probably deserved to see its shares pull back in 2011... not to the degree they did, but to pull back nonetheless. Per-share earnings slumped from 2010's peak of $1.14 (when pet-mania was still growing but few had learned how to compete with the online pet pharmacy company) to what would be a multi-year low of $0.80 by fiscal 2012. The tide started to turn last year though, with the company booking a bottom line of $0.86 per share, and putting itself on pace to earn a projected $0.87 this year. No, it's not much, but it does explain the stock's recovery. Take a look at the long-term chart of annual per-share earnings for PETM, which roughly mirrors the stock's chart.

A step in the right direction? Sure, but critics will be quick to point out that the growth rebound has been tepid so far (7% in fiscal 2013), and is projected to be even less impressive this fiscal year (+1%). Before coming to that conclusion, however, interested parties may want to take a detailed look at the last several quarterly per-share reports from Petmed Express Inc. In six of the last eight quarter, PETM has topped estimates... by more than a little. In its most recent three quarters, it's grown the bottom line.

Point being, analysts may be underestimating how well the company's going to do not just in fiscal Q1 of 2014 (which it just completed), but for the next three quarters as well.

Just in the interest of complete reporting, fiscal Q1 has historically been a tough one for the company; PETM missed in both of its most recent first quarters. The bigger picture is still showing improvement though, and there's a great chance the company could be on the verge of posting a surprising earnings beat. There's an even better chance it'll top earnings estimates for the next three quarters.

The chart says traders are starting to agree, and though the runup right in front of earnings has to leave one wondering if this is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation, even a post-earnings dip would be a buying opportunity.

Hot Penny Stocks To Buy For 2014

Bottom line? Though probably not worth getting into right now, barring anything but a skyrocketing stock after Monday's earnings announcement, Petmed Express Inc. should be a great longer-term buy.

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Tuesday, September 24, 2013

The Biggest Stock Market News Today as the Dow Soars

Stock market news today kicks off on a good note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 100 points before noon on Monday.

But investors still await more clarity on whether the United States will attack Syria.

U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to shore up support for his plan to take action against Syria for using chemical weapons against its citizens. Congress returns from summer recess today to face a slew of issues, including resolving budget deficit woes. President Obama is likely to face a difficult time convincing the House to go along with the plan, which means investors are very uncertain regarding what's next.

In other stock market news today, U.S. economic indicators include a report on consumer credit at 3 p.m. today, but the data front is otherwise fairly quiet.

In major earnings news, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is up 2% today as it reports its third-quarter earnings fell to $0.06 per share from $0.25 the year earlier. Its earnings missed the Street consensus of $0.07 by $0.01 per share.

Among today's other movers, Lululemon Athletica Inc. (Nasdaq: LULU) shares are welcoming strong gains after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock at a "Buy." LULU is up about 3% in morning trade.

And, in other consumer stock market news today, Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is up 2.4% in this morning after it reported after hours on Friday that August same-store sales for its China division declined by 10% year over year. This included an estimated decline of 12% at KFC and 5% growth at Pizza Hut Casual Dining.

Stock Market News Today: Technology

Top 5 Oil Companies To Buy Right Now

The tech market's news today includes a plunge in Hanwha SolarOne Co. Ltd. (Nasdaq: HSOL) shares, which are down 5% in morning trade after its second-quarter loss narrowed to $0.32 per share from a loss of $0.43 in Q1.

The non-generally accepted accounting principles net loss per share was $0.25 compared to the Street estimate for a loss of $0.32. Total revenue was at 192.7 million compared to $179.2 million in Q1.

Also, the drawn-out dispute over the bid to take over Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) has finally come to an end as investor Carl Icahn says he is backing down, saying the battle would be "almost impossible to win," MarketWatch reports.

Stock Market News Today: Healthcare

And in the healthcare sector, Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ISIS) is up 11% as it and Biogen Idec Inc. (Nasdaq: BIBB) have entered into a broad, multi-year collaboration to advance the treatment of neurological diseases. ISIS will receive an upfront payment of $100 million. Most of that payment will be reflected as research and development expense in BIIB's third-quarter financial results.

ISIS is eligible to receive milestone payments, license fees, and royalty payments for all treatments developed through this collaboration, with the specific amount dependent on the modality of the molecule advanced by BIIB. In the case of antisense molecules, the milestone payments could be as much as $220 million, plus additional amounts related to the cost of clinical trials conducted by ISIS under the collaboration.

Finally, PDL BioPharma Inc. (Nasdaq: PDLI) expects third-quarter revenue of about $97 million, as compared with actual revenue of $85 million for the third quarter last year, an approximate 14% increase. Analysts expect revenue of $97.9 million.

Now for today's big story: The High-Tech "Gold Rush" Officially Begins...

Monday, September 23, 2013

Keep on Trucking at TravelCenters

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- When I travel back and forth between Tampa Bay and the New York City area, I keep an eye on the number of trucks on the highways and like to stop along the way where the truckers do, TravelCenters of America (TA). During my last trip in mid-August, I wrote Buy TravelCenters as the Economy Improves.

TravelCenters ($8) had a strong buy rating when I thought the stock had some upside for a buy-and-trade strategy as a proxy for the transportation sector, where 72.4% of the 181 stocks are rated sell or strong sell.

TravelCenters stock closed at $7.57 on Aug. 13 and continued to move sideways to down to $7.35 on Aug. 27. The stock is in the retail-wholesale sector and is now rated buy according to ValuEngine. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio remains at 7.8, and the stock trades at 71% of its book value.

The stock tested its 200-day simple moving average at $8.57 on Tuesday, up about 16% off the recent low. ValuEngine one-year price target is $8.60. My semiannual value level is $7.18 with a quarterly pivot, now a magnet at $8.04 and my semiannual risky level at $9.32. Today I am profiling 14 stocks in the trucking industry. One is rated a strong buy, one is rated hold and 12 are rated sell. Only two are undervalued and eight are overvalued by more than 20%. Nine have gained more than 40% over the last 12 months with three of these up between 124.2% and 228.1%. Twelve-month trailing P/E ratios are elevated between 16 and 26.8. Thirteen are above their 200-day simple moving averages reflecting the risk of reversion to the mean.

Reading the Table

OV / UN Valued - The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating - A "1-Engine" rating is a Strong Sell, a "2-Engine" rating is a Sell, a "3-Engine" rating is a Hold, a "4-Engine" rating is a Buy and a "5-Engine" rating is a Strong Buy. Last 12-Month Return (%) - Stocks with a Red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage. Forecast 1-Year Return - Stocks with a Red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a Black number in the Table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months. Value Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual. Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted. Risky Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength. Arkansas Best (ABFS) ($27.79) set a new multiyear high at $27.81 on Sept. 11. My monthly value level is $25.51 with an annual pivot at $26.86 and no risky levels. Celadon Group (CGI) ($18.82) tested its 200-day SMA at $19.06 but closed below it. My quarterly value level is $18.07 with a monthly pivot at $20.05 and annual risky level at $25.25. Con-Way Inc (CNW) ($44.37) set a multiyear high at $46.52 on Aug. 2 and traded down to $41.49 on Sept. 3 holding its 50-day SMA. My semiannual value level is $41.77 was tested at the low. My monthly risky level is $47.11. Heartland Express (HTLD) ($14.35) set a multiyear high at $15.09 on Aug. 1 and traded down to $13.87 on Aug. 30. My annual value level is $12.54 with a semiannual pivot at $14.57 and annual risky level at $18.14. JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) ($74.50) set its multiyear high at $78.39 on Aug. 1 and traded down to $71.26 on Sept. 3. My semiannual value level at $72.05 held at the low with a monthly risky level at $84.14. Knight Transportation (KNX) ($16.87) set a multiyear high at $17.73 on May 22, and then fell to $16.10 on Sept. 4, holding its 200-day SMA. My quarterly value level is $14.40 with an annual pivot at $17.32 and semiannual risky level at $17.99.

Landstar System (LSTR) ($57.20) set a 2013 low at $50.39 on June 26 and then traded as high as $57.94 on Sept. 11. My quarterly value level is $55.02 with a semiannual pivot at $57.42, which was tested on Wednesday and annual risky level at $64.85.

Marten Transport (MRTN) ($17.44) set a multiyear high at $18.62 on Aug. 22 and traded down to $17.05 on Sept. 6 holding its 50-day SMA. My quarterly value level is $15.29 with a semiannual pivot at $17.17, which was tested at the low and annual risky level at $21.26.

Old Dominion (ODFL) ($46.43) set a multiyear high at $46.48 on Sept. 11. My semiannual value level is $40.38 with a monthly risky level at $46.87.

Roadrunner (RRTS) ($27.63) set a multiyear high at $30.98 on Aug. 1 and traded down to $26.38 on Aug. 14. My quarterly value level is $23.83 with a monthly risky level at $32.62. Saia Inc (SAIA) ($32.81) set a multiyear high at $34.97 on July 11 and traded down to $27.95 on Aug. 15. My quarterly value level is $27.78 with a monthly risky level at $44.19. Swift Transport (SWFT) ($20.15) set a multiyear high at $20.30 on Sept. 11. My annual value level is $15.85 with a monthly risky level at $22.55. Universal Truckload (UACL) ($28.19) set a multiyear high at $29.99 on July 30 and then traded down to $23.45 on Aug. 16. My semiannual value level is $20.98 with a monthly risky level at $28.95. Werner Enterprises (WERN) ($24.35) set a multiyear high at $25.44 on May 22 and traded down to $22.89 on Sept. 3. My annual value level is $21.04 with a monthly pivot at $25.68 and semiannual risky level at $27.96. At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @Suttmeier This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

For All Our Good, Let Student Debtors Go Bankrupt

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- We've all heard the figures: Student loan debt in the United States now exceeds $1 trillion dollars, surpassing our nation's collective credit card debt.

Yet, unlike our credit card debt -- or any other debt, for that matter -- student loans for the most part cannot be discharged in bankruptcy. A report released in August by the Center for American Progress, though, calls for that to change. [Read: 5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts]

Specifically, the report calls for guidelines to define and differentiate "Qualified Student Loans" from other loans. A Qualified Student Loan is one that offers reasonable repayment conditions including low interest rates and "access to favorable forbearance, deferment and income-based repayment options," as well as requiring successful track records for career success and salary prospects among graduates from participating institutions. The center argues that loans that do not meet this criteria should be eligible for discharge in bankruptcy just as credit cards are.

Student loan debt hasn't always been exempted from bankruptcy. Restrictions began in the 1970s out of concern that recent graduates in fields with lucrative career paths would simply accrue as much debt as needed and then discharge it via bankruptcy immediately after getting their degrees. Congress implemented a reform in 1976 for five years' wait after completion of a degree before debtors could declare bankruptcy. In 1990, this was increased to seven years. The intent was to allow students to advance up a career ladder and develop good credit they would be reluctant to mar with a bankruptcy filing. The law was reformed again in 1998 to exempt federal student loans from bankruptcy. In 2005, this exemption was extended to private loans with the passage of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act. Since then, student loans can now be discharged only in very rare cases of "undue hardship" -- usually the most dire of circumstances, such as the development of a debilitating medical condition. [Read: 10 Best Cars On The Market] Times have changed. The economic collapse of 2008 ushered in the Great Recession and along with it, historic rates of unemployment. The economic recovery has been slow, with recent college graduates ages 20 to 24 suffering levels of unemployment 40% to 50% higher than those in their age group nearly 35 years ago. At the same time, the cost of college continues to balloon. Specifically, average college tuition and fees have increased by 440% in the past 25 years -- four times the rate of inflation. And yet a federal Pell Grant, which does not have to be repaid, now covers less than 34% of tuition for students from low- and modest-income families, as compared with nearly 70% in 1980. College students now graduate with an average of $26,000 of debt, and about 45% of American families owe some student loan debt.

"We need to reform the nearly four-decades-old policy of blocking borrowers from discharging student loans in bankruptcy, a policy that only makes sense for good loans for good programs," said David A. Bergeron, co-author of the CAP report and vice president for postsecondary education there, in a press release. "Today's student-debt levels were unheard of when Congress last took up this issue, and our nation's bankruptcy laws should reflect that change."

The report is not the only sign of changing perceptions about the issue. This past January, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin introduced the "Fairness for Struggling Students Act," which would make private student loans dischargeable like other forms of private debt. The bill floundered in the Senate but did call more political and public attention to the issue.

CAP cites the Durbin bill as a step in the right the direction. Unlike the Durbin bill, though, the CAP report supports inclusion of federal loans for bankruptcy, since private loans account for only 15% of all student loan debt. [Read: Sorry Apple Investors, It's Not the Same Stock]

There are also concerns that without the option of bankruptcy for all student loans, the continued rise of college costs will require students to take on ever-higher amounts of debt and discourage them from pursuing more diverse career paths. In particular, a working paper by Princeton professor Jesse Rothstein argues that to pay off student debt, students will be more likely to forgo jobs in social service and nonprofit sectors in favor of higher-paying positions that do not necessarily play to their strengths or passions. There might be also be a lack of entrepreneurship, as those saddled with large amounts of debt will avoid the risk-taking necessary to get business ventures off the ground. Such claims are not without merit. Statistics reveal that young adults are putting off or altogether abandoning what was once seen as cornerstones of adulthood, such as buying cars or homes, starting families or even just living independently. Pew Research reported last year that three in 10, or 29%, of people ages 25 to 34 lived with their parents. According to demographer Cheryl Russell of New Strategist Publications, "debt, coupled with double-digit unemployment, has hobbled millions of young adults who would have bought homes, married, had children and feathered their nests with all the middle-class goodies that keep our economy humming." "Rising student debt has been eating into the housing and auto markets," wrote Brad Plumer in The Washington Post in April, while many argue that letting students overburdened by student loans go bankrupt would actually invigorate the overall economy. "This entire system must be overhauled," wrote Salon contributor David Dayen. "Otherwise, it will continue to damage our economy by indenturing talented students, our greatest renewable resource."

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Hong Kong Stocks Drop, Paring Best Two-Week Gain in Year

Hong Kong stocks fell, with the benchmark index paring its biggest two-week gain in a year, as property developers and materials shares led declines.

China Coal Energy Co., the country's second-largest producer of the fuel, sank 3.1 percent after the government said it will cut coal consumption. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. (16), the world's second-biggest developer, fell 1.4 percent after trimming its sales target. Gold producers led materials companies lower as the precious metal headed for its steepest weekly loss since June amid expectations the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will next week decide to reduce stimulus.

The Hang Seng Index slid 0.2 percent to close at 22,915.28 in Hong Kong, paring its advance since Aug. 30 to 5.5 percent. About three stocks retreated for every two that gained. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), also known as the H-share index, declined 0.9 percent to 10,538.94.

"The market had big gains in the short term, and the FOMC meeting is coming up so it's reasonable to have some profit-taking," said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. "Global recovery is the major story right now. Overall the upward trend is intact."

The H-share index entered a bull market this week after rebounding more than 20 percent from a June low, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) erased its 2013 loss. Stocks climbed as data showed China's inflation remained subdued in August, while export growth, factory output and retail sales beat expectations. Hong Kong's equity benchmark traded at 10.9 times estimated earnings, compared with a multiple of 15.2 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Growth Targets

Bank of America Merrill Lynch boosted its economic growth estimate for China this year to 7.7 percent from 7.6 percent, joining Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG in raising predictions for expansion in the world's second-biggest economy. The government has defended its target for 7.5 percent annual growth.

China's State Council yesterday said it will reduce coal consumption in an effort to "gradually eliminate" heavily polluted days in as soon as a decade. A rebound in coal prices in China is being limited by overcapacity, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Julian Zhu said yesterday.

China Coal slid 3.1 percent to HK$5.06. China Shenhua Energy Co. (1088), the nation's top coal miner by market value, retreated 3.3 percent to HK$25.15.

Stimulus Concern

Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed today. The gauge dropped yesterday amid growing concern over Syria and as investors weighed the prospects for Federal Reserve stimulus cuts. The Fed will decide to cut its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases by $10 billion when it meets Sept. 17-18, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is in Geneva discussing a deal with Russia for the removal of Syria's chemical weapons. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said any deal to surrender the nation's chemical arsenal must be a "two-way street" in which the administration of President Barack Obama drops its military threats and stops arming Syrian rebels.

Gold producers declined as the price of the metal headed for its first annual loss in 13 years as it loses appeal as a haven asset. Zijin Mining Group Co. retreated 1.6 percent to HK$1.82. Zhaojin Mining Industry Co. (1818), the mainland's No. 2 gold producer, plunged 4.7 percent to HK$6.44.

A measure of property companies dropped the most among the Hang Seng Index's industry groups. Sun Hung Kai slid 1.4 percent to HK$101.70 after cutting its net-income forecast and reporting full-year underlying profit that missed estimates.

Sun Hung Kai

Sun Hung Kai plans to sell HK$28 billion ($3.6 billion) of homes in Hong Kong and mainland China in the year through June 2014, Deputy Managing Director Victor Lui said yesterday. That compares with sales of HK$32.9 billion a year earlier.

Among stocks that climbed, Sino Biopharmaceutical Ltd. (1177) gained 3.4 percent to HK$4.92 after saying it's investigating media reports of alleged bribery at its unit. The drugmaker said neither senior management nor board members of the group were involved. The shares yesterday plunged the most since 2000.

Futures on the Hong Kong gauge fell 0.2 percent to 22,933. The HSI Volatility Index climbed 0.1 percent to 16.71, indicating traders expect the benchmark equity index to swing 4.8 percent in the next 30 days.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Thursday Closing Bell: Markets Fade at Close

September 12, 2013: U.S. markets opened mixed again Thursday morning with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both just slightly better than last night's close. The weekly report on new claims for jobless benefits fell to a multi-year low, but the Labor Department said the drop may have been due to faulty reporting. Early afternoon comments by Senator Harry Reid and Rep. John Boehner on a government shutdown related to the debate over the U.S. debt ceiling weighed shares down to their daily lows.

Asian and European markets closed mixed today, while Latin American markets closed lower again.

Friday's calendar includes the following data releases and events (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Producer price index 8:30 a.m. – Retail prices 8:55 a.m. – Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index 10:00 a.m. – Business inventories

Here are the closing bell levels for Thursday:

S&P500 1,683.42 (-5.71; -0.34%) DJIA 15,3300.64 (-25.96; -0.17%) NASDAQ 3,715.97 (-9.04; -0.24%) 10YR TNOTE 2.909% (+0.03125) Gold $1,330.60 (-33.20; -2.4%) WTI Crude oil $108.60 (+1.04; +1%) Euro/Dollar: 1.3303 (-0.0012; -0.09%)

Big Earnings Movers: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is down 5.4% at $65.27 on weak guidance<<LINK>>. The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) is up 2.5% at $38.60. The Men's Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW) is down 12.1% at $34.05.

Stocks on the move: Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) is up 6.7% at $6.35. Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) is up 12.1% at $23.95 after naming a new CEO. The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is up 2.4% at $65.49 after announcing a new buyback program. The ExOne Co. (NASDAQ: XONE) is down 11.4% at $55.49 after a secondary offering.

In all, 129 stocks put up new 52-week highs today, while 55 stocks posted new lows.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Top Casino Companies To Own For 2014

It's been a tumultuous, Twitter-hacked, earnings-filled week, yet the market continues to chug higher. For skeptics like me, that's an opportunity to see whether companies have earned their current valuations.

Keep in mind that some companies�deserve�their current valuations. Take casino and hotel operator Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) , for example, which is approaching a new 52-week high on the heels of strength in its Macau business. Targeting a broader class of Chinese citizens and tourists, Las Vegas Sands has supplanted Wynn Resorts�in growth and is putting itself atop the casino sector.

Still, other companies might deserve a kick in the pants. Here's a look at three companies that could be worth selling.

Boring doesn't always mean "buy"
You may have heard me mention recently that boring industries can often make the most profitable industries. That is generally true, but it's not a rule! This is why packaging products maker Rock-Tenn (NYSE: RKT  ) has found its way onto my "sell-now" radar.

Top Casino Companies To Own For 2014: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)

Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L'Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jeanine Poggi]

    Pinnacle Entertainment(PNK) was the great transition story of 2010, with shares spiking about 45% this year.

    The regional casino operator's most impressive story has been in its gross margins, as management, under the leadership of new CEO Anthony Sanfilippo, is in the process of increasing the company's operating efficiencies and prudently allocating capital. Analysts believe Pinnacle is in the early stages of this process, and will continue to drive revenue growth.

    In its third quarter, Pinnacle reported a surprise profit of 10 cents a share on an adjusted basis, better than consensus estimates of a loss of 7 cents. Revenue grew 15% to $287.8 million, while property-level margins reached 23.4%, also ahead of forecasts.

    Last month, Pinnacle purchased Cincinnati's River Downs Racetrack for $45 million. The deal includes 155 acres, 35 of which are still undeveloped. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2011.

    This deal could generate significant returns in the event that Ohio decides to legalize video lottery terminals at racetracks, Santarelli said.

    Pinnacle is also in the process of looking for a buyer of its oceanfront land in Atlantic City, where it originally intended to build a $1.5 billion casino, before squelching plans. The casino operator bought the land in 2006 for $270 million from groups affiliated with Carl Icahn and later added another piece of land for $70 million.

    While the land's currently value is $38 million, Pinnacle insists it will not sell it on the cheap, holding out for the best deal.

    Pinnacle currently has $228 million in cash and $375 million of availability under its revolver.

Top Casino Companies To Own For 2014: MGM Resorts International(MGM)

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company?s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the ?MGM Grand? brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Hawkinvest]

    MGM Resorts International (MGM) is one of the world's largest hotel and casino companies, based in Las Vegas. Since December, MGM shares have been trading in a range of about $9, to almost $15 per share. The stock is now at the upper limit of the recent trading range which means that the risk of holding or buying this stock right now, could be elevated. MGM shares have rallied with the markets but appear extended and vulnerable to a sell-off. The company has a heavy debt load and it has been reporting losses. The balance sheet has about $13.45 billion in debt and only about $1.97 billion in cash. MGM could be impacted by higher oil prices because many consumers could cut back on spending if they go to Las Vegas, and some might decide not to go at all, and instead opt for a "staycation." With MGM facing challenges and the shares near recent highs, it could make sen se to sell now and buy on dips later this year.

    Here are some key points for MGM:

    Current share price: $14.18

    The 52 week range is $7.40 to $16.05

    Earnings estimates for 2011: a loss of 53 cents per share

    Earnings estimates for 2012: a loss of 39 cents per share

    Annual dividend: none

Best Stocks To Buy: Penn National Gaming Inc.(PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. and its subsidiaries own and manage gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the United States. It operates approximately 27,000 gaming machines; 500 table games; and 2,000 hotel rooms in 23 facilities in 16 jurisdictions, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ontario. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Quickel]

    Penn National Gaming(PENN) squeaked past its guidance through improved cost controls, and investors praised its efforts.

    But expectations were low, and its upbeat outlook shouldn't be viewed as a message that regional markets are recovering. "Going forward, we project soft regional gaming revenue results over the next three to six months, as we do not expect to see a significant increase in consumer spending patterns given the uncertain economic environment," J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note.

    Penn National raised its full-year earnings guidance to $1.18 from $1.13 a share, and up its revenue outlook by $26 million to $2.44 billion from $2.41 billion.

    During the second quarter, the company earned $9.2 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with $28.5 million, or 27 cents, in the year-ago period. Excluding items, Penn actually earned 29 cents a share, a penny higher than estimates.

    Revenue rose 3% to $598.3 million, higher than the $597.1 million Wall Street projected. The upside was driven by both better revenues and margins and was generally broad-based across many properties, especially larger venues in Charlestown, Lawrenceburg and Grantville, Pa.

    Penn National rolled out table games in West Virginia and Pennsylvania during the quarter, which should be a growth catalyst moving forward. The company also plans to open a slot facility in Maryland on Sept. 30 and expects its Toldeo, Ohio, location to open in the first-half of 2012. Its Columbus project is slated to open in the second-half of 2012.

    The company repurchased 409,000 shares during the quarter. "[This] sends a message to investors on the value of its equity, but perhaps indicating the lack of near-term acquisition opportunities," J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote in a note.

Top Casino Companies To Own For 2014: Wynn Resorts Limited(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of destination casino resorts. The company owns and operates Wynn Las Vegas casino resort in Las Vegas, which includes approximately 22 food and beverage outlets comprising 5 dining restaurants; 2 nightclubs; 1 spa and salon; 1 Ferrari and Maserati automobile dealership; wedding chapels; an 18-hole golf course; meeting space; and foot retail promenade featuring boutiques. Wynn Las Vegas casino resort also features approximately 147 table games, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, 1 poker room, 1,842 slot machines, and 1 race and sports book. It also owns and operates an Encore at Wynn Las Vegas resort, a destination casino resort located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas that features a 2,034 all-suite hotel, as well as a casino with 95 table games, 1 sky casino, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, and 778 slot machines. In addition, the company operates Wyn n Macau casino resort located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People?s Republic of China. Wynn Macau casino resort features approximately 595 hotel rooms and suites, 410 table games, 935 slot machines, 1 poker room, 1 sky casino, 6 restaurants, 1 spa and salon, lounges, meeting facilities, and retail space featuring boutiques. Further, it operates Encore at Wynn Macau resort located adjacent to Wynn Macau. Encore at Wynn Macau resort features approximately 410 luxury suites and 4 villas, as well as casino gaming space, including a sky casino consisting of 60 table games and 80 slot machines, 2 restaurants, 1 luxury spa, and retail space. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jonas Elmerraji]

    While gamblers in Las Vegas are focused on the payouts on the casino floor at Wynn Resorts (WYNN), I'm more interested in this stock's dividend payout -- there's no gamble there. The $14 billion casino resort operator currently pays out a $1 per share dividend each quarter, adding up to a 2.8% dividend yield at current price levels.

    Wynn has benefitted from a rebounding economy in Las Vegas. The firm's Wynn and Encore resorts are two of the newer properties on the strip, and their high-end positioning keeps VIP business coming into the door. Vegas, though, isn't Wynn's cash cow anymore. China is. Today, around 70% of revenues actually come from Macau, the high-end Chinese gambling district. Macau is Wynn's crown jewel in large part because the firm is one of the few that's been granted a gaming license from the government: Wynn has two properties in Macau, with a third on the way.

    Healthy levels of profitability have translated into a $2.2 billion cash position for WYNN -- enough to pay for around 15% of the firm's market capitalization. Concentrated ownership from founder Steve Wynn should align management's incentives with investors, and increase the likelihood of a dividend hike.

  • [By Jeanine Poggi]

    Wynn Resorts'(WYNN) run up of more than 55% this year has caused Wall Street to question its valuation.

    Currently, eight analysts have a buy rating on Wynn, 16 say hold, two rate it underperform rating and one says to sell the stock.

    "With little on the growth horizon in the intermediate term, new competition from Cotai coming in 2011 and 2012 ... and the unclear timing of a true recovery in Las Vegas, we see few catalysts not yet priced-in to pull valuation higher than current levels," Bain wrote in a note following its third-quarter earnings report.

    During the quarter, Wynn lost $33.5 million, or 27 cents a share, compared with a profit of $34.2 million, or 28 cents, in the year-ago period. The loss was attributed to charges related to servicing its debt. On an adjusted basis, Wynn actually earned 39 cents, matching Wall Street's outlook.

    Total Revenue grew to $1 billion from $773.1 million, better than the $990.8 million analysts predicted.

    In Macau, Wynn reported a 50% surge in revenue to $671.4 million, while EBITDA was $198 million, up 54.5% from $128.2 million in the third quarter of 2009. Earlier in the year the company opened its $600 million Wynn Encore Macau, which added 414 rooms to the market.

    Looking ahead, Wynn expects to break ground on its Cotai development in early 2011. The $2 billion to $3 billion project is slated to open in 2015, and management said it would provide additional details following its fourth-quarter earnings report.

    In Las Vegas, CEO Steve Wynn says the Strip is on the road to recovery. "I believe we have seen the bottom in Las Vegas," he said during the company's third-quarter conference call. "I don't know how fast it is going to get better but it isn't going to get any worse."

    Las Vegas revenue inched up 3.1% to $334.5 million during the three-month period, and EBITDA grew 9.3% to $76.5 million.

    Wynn also issued a cash dividend of $8 a share payable on Dec. 7 to sharehold! ers of record on Nov. 23.

Monday, September 9, 2013

Does Priceline Have More Upside Potential?

With shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ:PCLN) trading at around $795.73, is PCLN an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

On a day where the S&P dropped 1.38 percent, Priceline only dropped 0.37 percent. This is a sign of resiliency. However, this doesn't mean Priceline is bulletproof. If the market were to suffer a severe correction, there's a good chance that Priceline would suffer with it. When the market falls and personal investment gains turn into losses, discretionary income for many people quickly becomes horded. This, in turn, impacts the travel industry. All that said, nobody knows for sure what direction the market will go tomorrow, the next day, or the day after that. That being the case, many investors prefer to focus on quality companies, and Priceline is definitely a quality company. Priceline has also made highly strategic acquisitions through the years. Considering the company's strong balance sheet, there might be more acquisitions to help fuel growth in the future.

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As we all know, Priceline has had no problem with top-line growth. The bottom line has also been impressive over the years, for the most part. And, it should be noted the gross bookings have consistently improved. However, the best way to take a stab at future results is to look at online traffic. If traffic has increased for a company like Priceline, then the odds of improved results also increase. And vice versa. Below is a quick list of properties that might provide some clues. Aside from Global and U.S. ranks, performance numbers are based on the past three months.

Priceline.com

Global Rank: 779

U.S. Rank: 160

Pageviews-Per-User: Increased 1.0 percent

Time-On-Site: Increased 6.0 percent

Bounce Rate (only one pageview per visit): Increased 13 percent

 

Booking.com

Global Rank: 165

U.S. Rank: 402

Pageviews-Per-User: Decreased 2.65 percent

Time-On-Site: Increased 4.0 percent

Bounce Rate: Decreased 2.0 percent

 

Agoda.com

Global Rank: 993

Thailand Rank: 49

Pageviews-Per-User: Increased 17.50 percent

Time-On-Site: Increased 25.0 percent

Bounce Rate: Decreased 24.0 percent

 

Rentalcars.com

Global Rank: 5305

U.S. Rank: 6818

Pageviews-Per-User: Decreased 14.19 percent

Time-On-Site: Decreased 5.0 percent

Bounce Rate: Decreased 7.0 percent

The Agoda.com numbers are phenomenal. This is important because it has allowed Priceline to compete in Asia. To give readers an idea of the size of Agoda.com, it has 285,000 hotels available for booking, 7 million customers, and it's available in 37,000 cities across the world. There is also a best price guarantee, and there have been over 4 million reviews left by Agoda customers.

Below are some more directional numbers from the last quarter. These numbers are all year-over-year.

Hotel Room Nights: Increased 36.8 percent

Rental Car Days: Increased 37.5 percent

Airline Tickets: Increased 21.4 percent

Bookings: Increased 36.4 percent

Gross Margins: Increased 747 bps

Agency Business: Grew 6.5 percent

Merchant Business: Grew 43.2 percent

Priceline also recently announced the sale of $1 billion of senior unsecured notes as well as a $1 billion share buyback.

The chart below takes a look at some basic fundamentals for Priceline, Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE), and Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE:OWW).

PCLN EXPE OWW
Trailing P/E 27.61 42.85 N/A
Forward P/E 17.46 13.98 21.51
Profit Margin 26.82% 4.24% -18.82%
ROE 42.74% 7.28% -179.93%
Operating Cash Flow 1.79B 1.27B 184.56M
Dividend Yield N/A 0.90% N/A
Short Position 5.80% 8.40% 19.90%

Let's take a look at some more important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

T = Technicals Are Strong

Priceline has been one of the biggest winners throughout the broader market over the past three years. That’s saying a lot.

1 Month Year-To-Date 1 Year 3 Year
PCLN 10.03% 28.54% 29.34% 346.6%
EXPE -6.62% -10.15% 24.52% 217.8%
OWW 21.54% 177.9% 108.8% 56.52%

At $795.73, Priceline is trading above its averages.

50-Day SMA 754.01
200-Day SMA 695.71
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E = Equity to Debt Ratio Is Strong

The debt-to-equity ratio for Priceline is stronger than the industry average of 0.50.

Debt-To-Equity Cash Long-Term Debt
PCLN 0.35 5.18B 1.46B
EXPE 0.48 2.09B 1.25B
OWW 0.03 219.77M 450.00M

E = Earnings Have Been Steady

Priceline usually impresses on the both top and bottom lines.

Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue ($) in millions 1,885 2,338 3,085 4,356 5,261
Diluted EPS ($) 3.98 9.88 10.35 20.63 0.00

Looking at the last quarter on a year-over-year basis, revenue and earnings have both improved. On a sequential basis, revenue improved and earnings declined.

Quarter Mar. 31, 2012 Jun. 30, 2012 Sep. 30, 2012 Dec. 31, 2012 Mar. 31, 2013
Revenue ($) in millions 1,037.25 1,326.76 1,706.31 1,190.64 1,302.01
Diluted EPS ($) 3.54 6.88 11.66 5.63 4.76

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

Conclusion

Priceline is dealing with a few headwinds at the moment, which include exposure to Europe, regulatory challenges in Argentina, competition in Asia, and slight foreign currency impacts. However, the positives greatly outweigh the negatives with this story. As mentioned earlier, the biggest risk is steep market correction. Priceline isn’t likely to hold up well in such an environment.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Is India’s New Central Banker Already Fixing the Nation?

India has been in trouble, it currency and financial markets have been roiled and its inflation is among the worst we have measured. It seems as though that all times of trouble have a recovery, and that may be happening in India. Raghuram Rajan has taken over as the head of India’s central bank this week and the market is reacting as though his entrance will immediately help to foster a much-needed recovery.

Stocks have magically had a good week in India after a continuous slide, and the rupee currency even hit what appears to be 10-day high after recently settling in at all-time lows. Rajan already has released some initiatives to drive the rupee back up. His aim is to make it cheaper for India’s banking sector to keep dollars with some foreign currency bank deposits. Another step is an increased swap line with Japan for trade.

India, and much of the emerging economic market world, is somewhat at the mercy of the Federal Reserve. A sudden and abrupt end to quantitative easing is of severe concern to the international markets because it could further weaken other currencies against the dollar and drive up the cost of goods even more in these local economies.

The Bombay Stock Exchange closed up over 1.5% at 19,270.06 on Friday, making for what was a 7.2% gain from the lowest closing price of the prior week. We already are seeing some gains take place in the key ETFs and funds as well.

WisdomTree India Earnings (NYSEMKT: EPI) is up 2.2% at $14.89, against a 52-week range of $12.99 to $20.50. This translates to a gain of 14% from the very recent lows.

PowerShares India (NYSEMKT: PIN) is up 1.8% at $15.49, and its 52-week range is $13.50 to $19.66. That is a gain of almost 15% off the recent lows.

The India Fund Inc. (NYSE: IFN) is a closed-end fund that trades often at severe discounts or premiums to the net asset value. Its gain is only 0.9% to $18.03, and the 52-week trading range of $16.88 to $24.10 implies that it has recovered only 7% off of its recent lows. It currently trades at a discount of 11% to its NAV according to CEFA.com.

The small-cap ETF for India is the Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: SCIF), and its gain is only 0.5% to $24.48, against a 52-week range of $22.25 to $46.60. The recovery here is only almost 9% when it is still trading at about half the price of its 52-week high.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Does Travelers Support These Prices?

With shares of Travelers (NYSE:TRV) trading around $86, is TRV an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Travelers is engaged in providing a range of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, Government units, associations and individuals. The company is organized into three business segments: Business Insurance; Financial, Professional and International Insurance, and Personal Insurance. Through its segments, Travelers offers an array of property and casualty insurance and insurance-related services to its clients, surety and financial liability coverage’s, property and casualty products, and a range of property and casualty insurance covering individuals’ personal risks. Consumers and companies worldwide like to mitigate risk as much as possible because of the uneasy that uncertainty brings. As new risks are identified and existing ones are covered, look for companies like Travelers to continue to see rising profits.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Travelers stock has seen an explosive move higher over the last several years. After a huge run, the stock is now trading at all-time high prices and has not seen any significant selling pressure just yet. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Travelers is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

TRV

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Travelers options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

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Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Travelers Options

14.82%

10%

11%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Flat

Average

July Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Travelers’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Travelers look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

15.35%

-48.18%

179.75%

-239.77%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-1.00%

1.63%

1.64%

-0.45%

Earnings Reaction

2.09%

1.74%

3.58%

-0.48%

Travelers has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over most of the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been happy with Travelers’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Travelers stock done relative to its peers, American International Group (NYSE:AIG), WR Berkley (NYSE:WRB), American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG), and sector?

Travelers

AIG

WR Berkley

American Financial Group

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

19.74%

26.20%

13.99%

23.43%

22.14%

Travelers has been an average performer, year-to-date.

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Conclusion

Travelers provides valuable insurance products and services to an increasing number of consumers and companies looking to mitigate risk. The stock has been on a significant run over the last several years and is now trading at all-time high prices. Earnings and revenue have been increasing over most of the last four quarters which has kept investors upbeat. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Travelers has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Travelers stock to OUTPERFORM.

Monday, September 2, 2013

Barney Frank Defends Dodd-Frank at TDAI Elite Advisor Summit

“I was expecting the William Tell overture as my introduction music,” former congressman Barney Frank said to laughter at the TD Ameritrade 2013 Elite Summit in Palm Beach, Fla., on Wednesday morning.

The legendary curmudgeon and bane of political opponents was well-received by the advisors in attendance as he described the reasoning behind the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, as well as his views on the fiduciary standard.

The 16-term congressman and former chairman of the House Financial Services Committee began by noting the “two important systems” on which the country runs, the private and the public.

“The private system creates wealth and innovation,” he noted as a way to introduce his explanation of Dodd-Frank. “The public system sets the rules by which the private sector conducts itself, as well as doing the things the private sector can’t, but which citizens still demand.”

Frank said that during congressional hearings into the causes of the 2008 financial crisis, “I kept hearing over and over again how financial services firms had to do what they did because of competition.” He specifically noted former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince’s explanation for using structured debt because “not to would put Citigroup at a competitive disadvantage to Goldman Sachs.”

“At some point innovation in society reaches critical mass, and a sea change occurs,” Frank said. “Because it’s all completely new there are no rules to govern it.”

Such was the case with innovation coming from Wall Street, he argued.

“In 1850, there were no large, national enterprises in this country. By 1890, there was coal, railroads and manufacturing, among others. But it wasn’t until the Sherman Antitrust Act and really the Roosevelt administration that rules were established.”

The same can be said of what happened more recently with securitization, according to Frank.

“It used to be that there was a strict lender-borrower relationship; the person who lent the money expected to get paid back. With securitization, loans were made by institutions with no expectation of being paid back. It actually encouraged bad loans because they could collect transaction fees before the loans were sold.”

Calling rating agencies the “worst” performers of the crisis, he noted “they didn’t even sample the loans they were rating, they just had an equation they’d use.”

With Dodd-Frank, he said, “we did not fix prices, like some people wanted me to do with limiting credit card interest rates. We wanted to put risk back on the lender."

Referring to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, a news outlet he said could hardly be accused of being in his favor, he noted that the majority of derivatives transactions, a major cause of the crisis, are now performed on an exchange between a buyer and seller.

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“I believe TARP will go down in history as one of the most wildly successful and wildly unpopular things that government has ever done,” he said.

He said he disagrees with critics that said the crisis came about as a result of government deregulation of the banking industry, arguing it was the opposite, and referring to his earlier argument that there were no rules in place for something completely new.

His support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was “really about multifamily renting,” he said, and added that he believes the government-sponsored enterprises won’t end up costing “the American public a dime within a year or two.”

In answer to a question posed by Skip Schweiss, TDAI’s managing director of advisor advocacy, about “too big to fail,” Frank said that Sarah Palin was “half right.”

“In the original bill, we did have death panels,” Frank responded. “But they were for big banks, not for old ladies.”

The discussion concluded with a question from the audience about the fiduciary standard.

“Investors have different levels of service demand," Frank said, "and regulation must match those different levels."

When pressed by Schweiss about the current standard being debated, that it’s “not the ’40 Act but no less stringent than the ’40 Act,” and how regulators might have trouble implementing it, Frank said that “by stringent we mean appropriate to what’s going on.”

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Read TD’s Schweiss Keeps Tabs on Hot-Button Regulatory Issues on AdvisorOne.