Sunday, December 29, 2013

Green is the Warmest Color: S&P 500 Finishes Week at Record High

It’s slim pickings at the box office this week. Moviegoers could take in Jackass Present: Bad Grandpa, the Johnny Knoxville flick about a bad grandpa traveling cross-country with his grandson. While it could take in $25 million this weekend, I’m guessing not much of that will come from Barron’s readers. Then there’s the Cormac McCarthy-scripted the Counselor, which has gotten terrible reviews, despite a cast featuring Penelope Cruz, Cameron Diaz and Brad Pitt. And for those of us who dig the art house, there’s Blue is the Warmest Color, the winner of the  Palme D’Or at Cannes this year, but that’s playing in only four theaters and is surely not to everyone’s taste.

Investors had a little better luck this week, as plenty of stocks were on the move. Boeing (BA), for instance, was the big winner in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after it gained 7.1% to $131.19 this week following a big earnings beat thanks to big profits from its commercial aircraft division. Alexion Pharmaceutical  (ALXN), meanwhile, was the biggest non-tech gainer in the S&P 500, with a 15% gain to 125.17. It beat earnings and had a drug designated fast-tracked for approval. And over in the S&P 1500, Career Education Corp. (CECO) gained 91% to $5.98 after selling its European schools for more than its market cap.

It wasn’t all good news, however. Healthways (HWY) plunged 30% to $11.41, making it the S&P 1500′s biggest loser, while Cameron International (CAM) fell 18% to $53.25, making it the S&P 500′s weakest stock. Both released disappointing earnings reports this week.

Still, the Dow Jones Industrials rose 1.1% to15,570.28 this week, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9% to 1,759.77, a record high. The new highs had some bears proclaiming that stocks are expensive. MRB Research Partners doesn’t buy it. They write:

Stocks offer average value in absolute terms and good value relative to bonds and short-term interest rates. Stay long equities: an upmove to at least moderately overvalued levels should occur before the bull market ends, given plentiful liquidity conditions, improving economic activity and lagging central bankers, and the lack of attractive alternatives (the love affair with gold and commodities has waned, and the demand for bonds is now ebbing as well).

Next week brings data galore–industrial production and pending home sales on Monday, retail sales on Tuesday, among others–but don’t expect the Fed to act on it when it meets, says Pierpont Securities’ Stephen Stanley. He writes:

This week brings a heavy slate of events, but with the data mostly distorted and the FOMC not likely to budge any time soon, the impact of the data will be limited…the FOMC meeting this week will likely come and go without much fanfare.  There will be no press conference, and the statement may have only cosmetic changes.  In my view, the FOMC is not going to seriously contemplate tapering until March 2014 at the earliest.

Meet the new risk regime, same as the old regime.

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