Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Deere: Will Results Be Better Than Bears Expect?

Yes, says Barclays’ Andy Kaplowitz and team, who think Deere’s (DE) financial results will be messy but better than what the market is expecting. They explain:

Bloomberg News

[Deere's] results could be noisier than we’re used to given the transition to Final Tier IV [emission standards] production in ag during the quarter, but we think still resilient North American ag markets, a slowly improving construction business, and solid cash deployment potential could support a FY14 outlook better than bearish expectations.

The good news is that we think the transition to Final Tier IV does not seem nearly as significant as the transition was for Interim Tier IV. This doesn't mean that there won't be more significant issues with the transition than we currently expect in the quarter, but we do think the probability of similar mishaps we saw with [Deere's] s ramp-up of its iT4 production is lower, and the transition to Final Tier IV in FY1Q actually went more smoothly than anticipated.

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Deere is forecast to report a profit of $2.47 when it reports on May 14

Shares of Deere have dropped 0.7% to $93.65 at 3:49 p.m. today, while Agco (AGCO) has dipped 0.1% to $55.12, Toro (TTC) has gained 1% to $65.17 and Caterpillar (CAT) has risen 1.2% to $106.27.

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